The National Observer: What's in store for CRE investment in 2025

The national commercial real estate market saw $40.1 billion in transactions in the third quarter, down from $43 billion in Q2 and $44.4 billion in Q3 2023, according to Altus Group research.

 

Welcome to The National Observer, a roundup of top business news and actionable insights from across The Business Journals’ network of publications. Today we’re looking at what Walmart’s CEO had to say about expansion plans, a $1.4 billion deal between two lenders and a multibillion-dollar federal loan to support a new manufacturing plant in Georgia. First, however, we’ll dig into the cautious optimism being felt in the commercial real estate sector.

 

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CRE investors express cautious optimism

 

As 2025 fast approaches, executives are zeroing in on possible targets for their respective businesses in the coming year. For commercial real estate investors, there’s an expectation new opportunities might come available despite a slowdown in transaction activity year-to-date this year.

 

Ashley Fahey, editor of The National Observer: Real Estate Edition, reports the national commercial real estate market saw $40.1 billion in transactions in the third quarter, down from $43 billion in Q2 and $44.4 billion in Q3 2023, according to Altus Group research. While transaction activity slowed, the rate of the slowdown has moderated, especially on a yearly basis. Additionally, 10 of the 15 property types tracked saw a quarterly uptick in Q3 in price per square foot, including mixed-use, manufacturing, automotive and office properties.

 

QUOTABLE: “Transaction activity effectively begets transaction activity,” said Cole Perry, associate director of research at Altus Group. “What I’m seeing is really more of the same: There is still slow transaction activity, it’s declining year over year, price discovery remains pretty challenged — but I think it’s picking up a bit.”

 

 

Perry said the market is in a new normal of transaction activity, with buyers and sellers learning how to deal with a lack of comparable sales. Industry players also are trying to anticipate what President-elect Donald Trump’s policies and a Republican-controlled Congress could mean for the economy. While most are optimistic the incoming White House administration will mean deregulation or tax cuts, there’s also concern policies around immigration and tariffs that were signature aspects of Trump’s campaign will result in more inflation and economic uncertainty.

 

FULL STORY: CRE investment stabilizing, but ‘a slow, long grind’ remains

 


 

Walmart CEO on expansion plans, new-look Black Friday

 

Black Friday will be a lot different for Walmart Inc. this year than in years past. The retail giant’s stores will be different, too.

 

Chandler France of the Houston Business Journal reports that Walmart made a significant financial investment to renovate 650 locations this year and build or convert an additional 150 stores over the next five years. That follows the company in October 2023 reopening 117 remodeled stores across 30 states — an investment of more than half-a-billion dollars.

 

But as Walmart U.S. President and CEO John Furner told France during a site visit Tuesday, customers who visit one of those remodeled stories on Black Friday won’t be the only ones seeing a new-look Walmart. The company also has worked to enhance its online-shopping service — with the growth of e-commerce having “bifurcated” the traditional Black Friday experience, Furner said.

 

QUOTABLE “Competition makes you better,” Furner said. “A phrase I think about a lot is, ‘Loyalty in retail is the absence of something better.’ If we’re not the brand that’s providing the best choice for our customer, then someone else will happily come serve them for you.”

 

FULL STORY: Walmart US CEO talks Black Friday, store investments

 


 

Midwest lenders reach $1.4B deal

 

Old National Bancorp is acquiring Bremer Financial Corp. in a deal worth $1.4 billion that one of the principal CEOs said has been envisioned for years. The deal was announced Monday.

 

Keith Schubert of the Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal reports that St. Paul, Minnesota-based Bremer’s $16.2 billion in assets are expected to help Evansville, Indiana-based Old National strengthen its presence in the Minneapolis-St. Paul market. Bremer’s 71 branches across Wisconsin, Minnesota and North Dakota will also allow the acquiring bank to expand its footprint into other Midwestern markets.

 

 

QUOTABLE: “This was a unique situation, the synergies that exist between us culturally and the way we approach our markets and our clients,” Old National CEO Jim Ryan told Schubert. “If there was ever a very logical partner, it was two of us together, and so that’s what ultimately drove our interest here.”

 

Ryan added he has long admired Bremer, and talks of an acquisition accelerated following the end of a years-long legal dispute over a previous sale attempt of the bank between the bank and its owner, Otto Bremer Trust. “We were watching the situation closely unfold and we knew if there was ever a resolution … we wanted to participate,” he said.

 

FULL STORY: Bremer Bank’s been acquired. What happens next?

 


 

Rivian gets $6.6B federal loan for Georgia plant

 

The U.S. Department of Energy has conditionally granted Rivian Automotive Inc. a $6.57 billion direct loan to support construction of a manufacturing facility in Georgia that the company now says is set to be operational in 2028.

 

Anila Yoganathan of the Atlanta Business Chronicle reports the announcement comes near the end of a tumultuous year for Rivian that started with the electric-vehicle company announcing layoffs and indefinitely pausing construction at its Georgia site. The pause not only caught state officials off guard, but it also raised questions about the company’s commitment to Georgia and its financial viability.

 

Until now, Rivian had not given a definite timeline for its plans in Georgia. The company expects the plant to employ about 7,500 people and create about 2,000 full-time construction jobs by the end of 2030. The financial support is coming through the Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing loan program, which also has financed direct loans to Ford Motor Co., Nissan North America and Tesla Inc.

 

FULL STORY: Rivian gets $6.6B federal loan for Georgia plant

 
 
By Joshua Mann – Editor, The National Observer, The Business Journals